The Future Of Electricity- Center Of Gravity Shifting To Asia

by dyergin
The global electric power landscape is changing fast, and increasingly, the action in it has been shifting to Asia. On average, in each of the last three years, China alone has added as much new generating capacity as all of existing capacity in Texas. The shift to Asia will continue.

CERA’s Dawn of a New Age scenarios project that Asia will account for well over half of the increase in worldwide power generation capacity over the next 25 years. By comparison, North America will claim only a little more than 10 percent.

This move toward Asia has big implications for everyone connected to the power industry-plant developers, fuel suppliers, equipment vendors, engineering and construction companies, service providers and, of course, investors.

The biggest factor in this change is China, which is industrializing on the strength of its vast coal reserves. Over the past three years, China added 200 gigawatts of coal-fired power-generating capacity.

This is equivalent to two-thirds of total U.S. coal-fired capacity, which, by comparison, was installed over the course of half a century. The Chinese government has ambitious plans to build more hydro, nuclear, renewable and gas-fired power plants to diversify its electricity sources.

But coal-indigenous, cheap and abundant-is set to dominate new power capacity in China for years to come.

China’s current path is much like the one taken by the United States several decades ago. Rising Chinese power demand comes from both strong economic growth and increasing electricity intensity-that is, the amount of electricity consumed per unit of economic activity. In the 1990’s, one percent real growth in Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) corresponded to 0.7 percent growth in electricity consumption.

But today, one percent GDP growth corresponds to 1.4 percent growth in electricity usage. China’s recent record of 10 percent annual growth in real GDP thus translates to double digit annual growth in electricity consumption.

Many forces contribute to increasing electricity intensity: infrastructure development to sustain high economic growth; China’s move up the value-added chain into energy-intensive manufacturing; and rising middle-class incomes, which now support larger dwellings, with a full complement of air conditioners and modern appliances.

If we look at in those terms, this pattern starts to look familiar. And it should. The United States experienced something like it half a century ago. In the 1960’s, coal-indigenous and abundant- was the leading option for expansion of U.S. power generation capacity. Real GDP grew 4.2 percent annually during that decade, while electricity consumption grew 7.3 percent, driven by industrial expansion, and by widespread adoption of air conditioning and electric heating.

Electricity consumption continued to grow faster than real GDP during the first half of the 1970’s. But this changed quickly after the first oil shock of the mid-1970’s. High oil prices led to improvements in end-use efficiency, and the recession of 1980-82 shook up the manufacturing sectors and led to the closing down of less competitive factories. These forces pushed growth in electricity demand below the rate of real GDP growth, where it remains today.

But China is still at the stage the U.S. was in the 1960’s and early 1970’s and so is likely to move along its current path of rapidly growing power demand for the coming decade, and perhaps longer.

What does the shift to Asia mean to those in the power business? Sustained economic growth in Asia has strengthened Asian power developers and produced financial institutions capable of handling the expansion of the Asian power system. Homegrown Asian firms are increasingly winning businesses away from their Western competitors.

In addition, heightened concerns for energy security have reinforced the government’s role in the power sector and an emphasis on using power generation equipment and design, engineering and construction services provided by Asian companies or by Western companies that work closely with Asian partners.

For example, China’s objective of self reliance means that all the resources needed for coal-fired power plants-such as plant design, boilers and turbines, and construction-are coming from Chinese companies.

Nuclear power development is proceeding along two tracks: indigenous reactor designs and resources on one, and imports of Western technologies with heavy technology transfer requirements on the other.

Sustained growth of the Chinese power sector, combined with the government objective of self reliance and technology transfer, will likely lead over the coming decade to the growth of strong local companies in equipment manufacturing, design and engineering, construction, services and project development.

These companies will compete not only in the domestic Chinese markets, but also in the regional Asian market. The rise of strong Asian competitors in the power sector will intensify competition for Western firms. Some Western firms have sought business opportunities in Asia through partnerships, but many have found it difficult to get a foot in the door, and as they share technology, they fear that they also risk strengthening their competitors.

Eventually, Western firms will face the prospect of competing with Asian players in Western markets. How will Western power companies respond?

Western utilities focusing on domestic markets will source components and services worldwide. Western firms that provide equipment and services will strive to maintain their competitive advantage by staying on the innovation frontier. Even with their much faster GDP growth, China and India will still have lower per capita income than North America and most of Western Europe for the next two decades.

Higher incomes in the West will support research, development and the use of advanced technologies, giving Western firms opportunities to stay at the technology frontier.

We can think of North American companies that are doing well amid fierce competition from Asia. These companies flourish not because they can pare costs to the bone, surviving on high volumes and thin margins, but because they remain at the frontier of technology and product design.

If Western firms in the electric power business can follow this strategy, they will find it a very competitive approach in a world of intensified competition.

About the Author

Daniel Yergin, chairman of CERA, received the Pulitzer Prize for “The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power” and the United States Energy Award for lifelong achievements in energy and the promotion of international understanding. Vist CERA at http://cera.ecnext.com.

Article Source: Content for Reprint

Hamas is a Cancer in Palestinian Society

Palestinian Foreign Minister Mahmoud Zahar of Hamas said on Friday 20th Oct 2006, that Israel is an abomination in the Middle East that will some day disappear. Does this not resemble Iran’s President Mohammed Ahmadinajad’s rhetoric against Israel? The Palestinian factions – Hamas and Fatah, are on the eve of a civil war between them. Perhaps the renewed violence between the various Palestinian factions can be postponed by the one faction outdoing the other on anti-Israel rhetoric. After a period of relative calm, the firing of Qassam rockets into southern Israel has commenced again.

Egypt has once again shown its inability to prevent weapon smuggling from its borders into the Gaza strip via thirteen tunnels that were discovered by the Israeli Security Forces. Are the Egyptians ignoring this or are they incapable of preventing the smuggling of weapons through its borders? To date, the Egyptians have done nothing to prevent that despite their lip service to the contrary.

If one were to examine Hamas’s contribution to the improvement of the Palestinian People’s condition it does not take much imagination to conclude that they have done nothing for their people. Their strength lies in their anti-recognition-of-Israel stance and they believe that they can continue receiving grass roots support from the Palestinians while they remain intransigent towards negotiations with Israel. At the same time, Palestinian suffering will increase further because of lack of much needed foreign funds.

Since Hamas won the elections, they have achieved nothing for the Palestinian People. There is no programme of rehabilitation, building up infrastructures destroyed because of Palestinian violence and Israeli Army retaliations. Programmes for improvement of the various structures of running a state are absent. Civil servants have not received salaries for months and this has exacerbated the situation. They have replaced the corrupt Fatah regime with a regime that is autocratic, evil and a threat to stability in the Middle East. They have been consistent in three things:

1. They have refused to recognize Israel’s right to exist.
2. They have encouraged violence and destruction against Israel.
3. They have ensured that the Palestinians remain ungovernable due to factional fighting which will result in a civil war.

Surely any regime that is so totally obsessed by hate of Israel and its people will never be able to achieve an independent Palestinian State alongside Israel.

Hamas has adopted an uncompromising attitude towards Israel (View clip 1293) and still dreams of one day destroying Israel and establishing an extreme Islamic state in its place whereby non-Muslims will be second class citizens, subjected to Sharia (Muslim Law). Surely this racism is even worse than the despicable apartheid regime of White South Africa of the past! Assuming that Hamas does achieve this nightmarish scenario, people will be punished severely if they show any disagreement to the Hamas regime. In other words, what has happened in Gaza is that Hamas has utilized the so-called democratic institutions to win the elections in January 2006 in order to establish an extremist Islam regime that will be intolerant of non-Muslims. The Nazis gained power in Germany by democratic means in 1933.

Hamas has built an unstable regime. They have proved that after 10 months in power they are capable of hate rhetoric but not governing! The Palestinians are in a crisis and are in great need of foreign capital. This capital will not arrive unless Hamas shows willingness to change its uncompromising attitude towards Israel. Time is not on their side. Iran will find a reliable ally in Hamas. They both share a common hate of Israel. Maybe for a while, Iran will send money into Gaza in order to strengthen its influence in the same way that it invested in Hezbollah in Lebanon.

President Mahmoud Abbas has very few options. He is unable to negotiate any peace deal with Israel while his shaky Hamas-Fatah coalition is paralyzed. Both factions in his coalition are pulling his government apart weakening him even further. Trying to negotiate with President Mahmoud Abbas is a futile exercise in polemics that will achieve nothing. There is only one option left for Abbas and that is to dismantle the coalition and appoint a government of technocrats. It is unlikely that he will take this step. He will remain sitting on the fence watching impotently as the factions continue their violence against each other. According to the latest reports from Al Bawaba 20th October 2006, Fatah and Hamas officials agreed on Friday to take steps to end violence between the two movements. Fawzi Barhoum, a Hamas spokesman in Gaza, said an Egyptian security delegation had brokered the talks, Reuters reported. However, it is unlikely that this agreement to end the violence between the two sides will last.

Israel will continue to raid Gaza in order to prevent the firing of Qassam rockets into southern Israel. This will result in further hardships for the Palestinians. Israel will soon launch a heavy strike against Gaza due to Hamas’s terrorist activities. Hamas has also threatened to kidnap more Israeli soldiers to use as bargaining chips to achieve their ends of releasing Hamas prisoners who were involved in planning terrorist attacks against Israel. The stakes for the release of the kidnapped Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit is rising and there is still no light at the end of the dark tunnel as to his fate.

The blame for the Israeli Army retaliations against Palestinians must be laid at the door of Hamas. The latter has done nothing to improve the economic situation of the Palestinian People. Hamas has taken the road of destruction of Palestinian society in the same way that cancer destroys its victims. In reality, Hamas is an abomination to the Middle East and to the Palestinian People that it claims to represent.

Is the .com extension really so valuable?

My response to Mark, the author of Domain Aftermarket Overdue…
“”There are things I saw in the comments to that article that didn’t make much sense. One domainer said that your theory about “all it takes is browsers placing a search box in the navigation bar” is impossible and will never happen. This is typical, and I see that in my domainer friends as well. For the information of your commenters, what you say is already hapenning in Firefox since a long time ago now, and it stays like that update after update (which means that people don’t’ mind, or that even if it is so, Google or anyone has the power to force the browser into it without the browser losing significant market share). Another point I see they’re wrong, is that they act as if the .com extension is untouchable, or they play in a finite market. For me it is not so, for example when a UK company buys a .co.uk, the .com extension loses a potential buyer. And many people will follow.
Domainers believe that prices will always go up because people will pay anything for their domains. I don’t see this happening. If a small business can’t have the .com, it won’t stop doing business, it will just buy the extension they can afford. Would it have been better the .com? most probably. Is it essential to survive or do business, thus pushing prices of .com’s to the stratosphere? No. Or not for much longer.
Another thing domains don’t want to see, is that as there are .co.uk and other extensions that didn’t exist before, I don’t see why new extensions couldn’t be brought in in the future, thus eroding even more tha value of .com.
Another reason is that countries usually push more or less openly their own extension. I lived in Spain, and the “de facto” there is “.es” The .com is the weird one. Users don’t care who has the .com, because they would never visit it or type it in the first place.
In China the government wants to “force” into the population the .cn extension, I heard, and domains in their own language.
In india, they want to do the same about their own language.
So maybe I am very wrong, but I cannot see such high value as domainers are trying to make us believe in .com’s (just in case, I own a few domains myself, you never know!)
I don’t think what they say is not true, what I just think is that it is being exaggerated 1000 times, there definitely is a bubble about the .com extension, and that the basic assumptions of domainers about .com and the future is flawed. As an “apprentice Futurist” ;), my job is to see the big picture, and many of these guys seem to be too emotionally involved in the matter as to see the big picture anymore…

Domain Aftermarket Overdue for an “Asset Repricing”

Written by Mark Jeftovic.

For the last couple years the domain aftermarket has been hot again, we’re seeing valuations not seen since bubble1.0, which saw valuations like 7 million dollars for business.com and 800.000 dollars for drugs.com. The TechWreck was induced by the NASDAQ crash of 2000 and the fun was over for awhile.

What differentiates this bubble in the domain aftermarket from Bubble 1.0 is domain parking and monetization. While it existed in 2000, it was a weirdism on the fringe. Yun Ye was quietly building his Ultsearch empire and cleaning up.

When he sold out to Marchex, for 165 million cash, the masses “woke up” to parking and PPC. Now we have Internet REITs, domainer conferences and, the second last sign of an overheated market dropping in to place: VC funds are tripping over themselves to invest into PPC and the monetization game. (The last sign of an overheated aftermarket are the sales letters I get from places like domainprofiteer.com offering me courses in how to get rich buying and flipping expired domain names)

Now individual domains and portfolios sell for multiples of their revenues plus a premium for the name itself in the case of generics and other “type-in” names. These multiples have gone vertical over the last twelve to eighteen months. During the nadir of the tech wreck, actual web businesses were going for about 1 year’s revenues and that was the departure point for domain sales.

The interesting thing is since then, the multiples on domain names have outstripped the multiples on developed websites. To me, this is the equivalent of the “inverted yield curve” that portends economic recessions.

The logic, apparently, is that “developed websites” require actual work to keep them current and maintain the userbase. As such they often sell along typical business valuations: 1 to 2 times revenues or 3 to 5 times earnings. Often less.

PPC domains, type-in, generics, et al are going for minimum 5-7 years revenues and that was before things were heating up. Among domainer circles 12 and 15 year multiples are becoming more common, more sellers are looking for 20 years.

I’ve heard domainers talk in terms 40 or 60 year multiples or more. Really.

Valuations of this magnitude are financially unsound. We should all be familiar with the Rule of 72 (if you are not then you shouldn’t be “investing” in anything, stop daytrading or whatever you’re doing right now and go read Benjamin Graham’s Intelligent Investor or something).

This handy rule of thumb instructs us to divide the rate of interest on an asset into 72 and you’re left with the number of years it takes to double (or recoup) your money. With valuation multiples, do the opposite, divide the multiple into 72 to find out what your actual rate of return is:

Multiple Rate of Return Snide comment
7 years 10.2% not bad
12 years 6% GMAC territory, if you sell yours before GM goes bankrupt and buy a domain at this multiple you may actually be better off for it
15 years 4.8% we’re getting into 10 year T-bill territory here
20 years 3.6% we’re below the nominal inflation rate here
60 years 1.2% here we’d be better off hoarding empty aluminum cans

As one “domain flipper” on a closed domainer board gloats,

“In the domain aftermarket returns of 30-50% a year are commonplace. It’s almost a certainty that $65k [for domain_deleted] will turn into a $100k within six months from my experience. This is what I term “long term” as I tend to flip within days…”

Evidence of tulipmania in the modern age.

“All my short term flips have made me 50%-200%”

“I agree [that it is] madness of people paying 10-20 years on ppc domains, but if you buy at even 8 years and sell asap to someone higher up the food chain, you don’t have to agree with their madness, do you? :)”

At the time I started writing this article, John Gotts had recently paid 3 million dollars for the wiki.com domain name because he thinks “wikis are going to be hot” and from that premise, a lot of people are going to type “wiki.com” into their browser location bar.

Then “after he makes his money back on the 3 million he paid for the name, the rest will be pure profit”. No, that isn’t a line from a Simpson’s episode, it’s a real strategy, and according to Gotts there were two VCs interested in funding it. Big surprise. (Recent speculation is that the deal hasn’t fully consummated and that Gotts left himself a large escape hatch if it didn’t work out. The whois record doesn’t seem to reflect a completed transaction.)

Type-in traffic is always nice, but anybody building a long-term business strategy or “investing” large quantities of cold hard cash on the premise that it will continue forever (or even escalate) will, I think, be disappointed. The underlying premise is that internet users will grow less sophisticated over time and that there will be no further or meaningful user interface changes from here on in, that net neutrality will prevail and ISPs, access providers, network carriers, web browsers and even root or recursive nameserver operators are going to stay out of the realm of “errant or exploratory internet traffic” and leave it all to the domainers.

Type-in traffic is the realm of grandmothers and the not-so-tech-savy. As people get more knowledgeable about the internet, their type-in usage declines. They stop “typing into” the browser’s location bar and start using the browser’s search tab.

I think these facts will work against any assumptions about type-in traffic, especially those who hope it will increase into the future. In Gotts’ case, anybody clueful enough to know what a wiki is, knows better than to stumble their way around the internet typing what they want into the location bar. He’d have been better off buying wiki.org, which at least comes up near the top of the organic search engine results for “wiki”, while his wiki.com doesn’t even list on the first page.

Further, all it takes is one major browser (IE, for instance) to make a shift in the out-of-box layout of the browser dashboard: say putting a search input field right where the current location input bar is and type-in revenues will begin to decline in earnest.

Whatever type-in domains are doing now, I don’t think there won’t be as much of it in 10 years. So paying 10 years revenue on a type-in domain or portfolio seems highly speculative to me. Paying 20 borders on insanity.

One of the reasons I take this view is because I disagree with the wider sentiment that domains have an innate underlying value like a piece of real estate.

The argument goes that if you pay, say $100,000 for a name, then it has an underlying value of that amount, and the revenues earned by parking the name is a return on investment over and above the initial outlay.

I disagree with this. I think the domain has an underlying innate value of zero. If you pay 100K for a name, you are out 100K until the name earns it back for you, at which point you’ve broken even (aside from the loss of purchasing power of the currency via inflation in the intervening time).

You haven’t turned a profit on the name until it earns back your initial investment plus an amount greater than inflation, at which point you’re finally in the black on your “investment”. If you do sell the domain for some amount afterwards, either recouping your funds or turning a profit, it’s because you got lucky and you’ve succeeded in speculating, not investing.

Repeat after me: What makes a domain name valuable? It’s what you do with it. If there’s one thing the whole “Web2.0” phenomenon has proven, it’s that for the most part domain names don’t matter. Pick a word, any word. Is the domain name taken? No. Great. Reg it, and get back to business, building the website and advancing the business plan.

While nobody really knows what “web 2.0” means, the naming styles that emerged from it were a direct result of unfunded, agile start-ups working within the gaps left by domain hoarding and an overheated aftermarket.

So what will trigger “asset repricing” in the domain aftermarket? Basically aftermarket domains will be another casualty of the current liquidity bubble bursting, which will happen any day now. The talking heads on CNBC are already “upbeat” after yesterday’s 400+ point selloff on th DOW. Downplaying the extreme imbalances in the financial markets. But I have maintained for years that the entire 2003-2005 run-up in the equities markets is just one big-ass bear market rally and I stick by my assertion that we will see new lows on the NASDAQ a lot sooner than we will see new highs.

Yes, the DOW hit a series of new highs which technically violate a bear market rally scenario. The DOW has hit new highs due to credit expansion and excess liquidity, pure and simple, and will unwind soon if it hasn’t started already.

Yes, I am one of those nutjob quacks who is convinced there is a global recession bearing toward us like a freight train. Many early indicators already show successive months of contraction. In it, housing values, equities and corporate bonds are all going to take a dump.

The domain aftermarket isn’t gold bullion or a t-bill. It isn’t by any stretch a safe haven. There is no reason to think for a second that aftermarket domain pricing will move inversely to the wider asset classes which are going to spend the next few years clattering.

We’re in a secular bear market, they tend to last 12 to 20 years. It started in 2000. Do the math.

My advice to anybody sitting on some monster domains or portfolios is to either sell them fast or develop them into something useful that can produce an income stream that doesn’t depend on blind type-in traffic or pre-existing link-pop from an expired domain’s previous incarnation.

The domain parking services are going to have to get a whole lot more creative if they want to survive the TechWreck2.0. Marchex may be headed there with their much anticipated openlist initiative, other operations like communicate.com are developing their properties into verticals.

Lots of people are working on a better, smarter, parked platform. The problem in this space is that there is a fine line between dynamically generating “contextual content” and an automated scraper splog.

At the end of the day, I don’t see a lot of long term upside for domains on their own, there has to be a viable website on them, there has to be something original, innovative and useful. There is real work involved.

The pink cloud days of easy PPC money from type-in traffic are numbered, get used to it.

Written by Mark Jeftovic. Mark’s blog

Good and bad news from the Millenial Generation

First the bad (?) news:
They don’t’ understand copyright laws (but “who does?”, the article fairly asks)

While they were generally concerned with staying on the “good side” of the law, they were “making up rules themselves” about what and how to use intellectual property. They also did not understand their own rights as creators of content.
One student said that uploading network programming was fair use because she was “merely showing others in a virtual ‘water cooler’ environment what she was talking about and had found interesting.”

And from another front in this excellent article

At 11 years old, Kate Achille had a pager for her parents to reach her when necessary. At 13, she had a cell phone. Now 22 and working for a school, she e-mails her mother as many as five times a day and calls her on the cell phone several times a week.

To prepare for millennials, it’s important to understand how cell phones and computers have changed their brain development, the enormous role their parents play in their lives well into adulthood, and what policies and training programs HR professionals will need to implement to transition these young people into the workplace.

Noticed the “computers have changed their brain development” part?! Easy to forget, but true

…technology allows a perpetual connection to peers, leaving little time for autonomy. “Except for their mothers, these kids don’t have relationships with people outside of their generation.

That’s definitely bad news. I am sure that being most of the time surrounded by older peers and wanting to learn from them, dulled me up a little, and perhaps made me grow a bit too fast. I still have the feeling that I didn’t have time to “enjoy my youth”. However, the lessons learned from these older peers where highly valuable and I wouldn’t change it for anything in the world. Things like “don’t try to run before you walk”, “one after another (so I wouldn’t get nervous when I had too many things to do)” and others still resonate with me every day. I’ll be forever thankful to the people who said that to me, even if at that time it may not have made so much sense.
My father was also 47 years older than me, so he wasn’t the kind of father who would “play football” with me. However, I am sure what he gave me in wisdom more than made up for it and I don’t feel I missed anything.

…millennials’ brains are still developing reasoning, planning and decision-making capabilities while they are depending heavily on technology—cell phones, IM and e-mail—as well as parents and friends at the other end of the technology. As a result, some experts believe millennials struggle to make decisions independently.

Alas! I thought I was the only one who noticed this. Now someone else knows! It is clear to me that the younger generations have these problems, and I have writen extensively about it in my blog. The most striking way of seeing this, as in my experience, is trying o hire these folks and thinking in the interview “my god, if I hire you, I would have one more problem to take care of”. This is very serious stuff. The world needs people more able to work in a variety of ways to take decisions and make sense of the information around us, not only to find that information (computers can do that quite well, thank you). If new generations can’t do this, what can they do?
And then come the “good” news… “they are techno savvy”, “adept at global diversity issues”, “team oriented” and “multitaskers”.
Parents of these peope will have to excuse me for being so hard on the younger generations in my blog posts….but I would ask them to think really hard on what they’re doing. Overprotecting their children is making them weaker for a hostile future when they -parents- won’t be there anymore. This generation will have to battle face to face with offshore outsourcing, automated system and robots. The last thing these kids need is overprotection.

…small errors induce critical thinking,” and if children are not allowed to make small errors, they don’t learn through experience

I made and still make lots of errors every day. “Thanks” to my parents for that…

The Gift of Future Planning

written by Chyntia Brian
In the early 1980s, a leading talent agent asked if I would develop a
program to train young children to “act for the camera” so they’d be
more effective in film, television, and commercials. At the time, I had
been acting professionally for several years and had been in numerous
workshops, but I’d never taught acting.

Although flattered, I was somewhat daunted. However, I decided to accept
the challenge and spent three months creating a comprehensive lesson
plan. Every exercise, every song, every word was carefully
choreographed, leaving nothing to chance. The plan adapted the most
effective and enjoyable techniques I had learned over the years, working
with many teachers, coaches, and directors.

The talent agent looked over my plan and hired me, starting my long
career as an acting coach, teacher, and consultant specializing in
children. Since then, I’ve taught for many prestigious performing arts
academies and am very proud of my clients’ successes.

However, creating my dream job of helping others succeed as actors would
never have happened if I hadn’t overcome my insecurities by carefully
planning every detail.

When you have something you want to do and somewhere you want to be,
here’s how to get there.
1. Start with what big business calls “strategic planning.” Draft a plan
that considers all probable eventualities—everything that might go
wrong—and decide the best actions to take. This will take some research
and thinking. Try to benefit from the mistakes and achievements of
others. There is no need to reinvent the wheel. Find people who have
done what you want to do and decide which of their strategies would work
for you.
2. Write down your final plan, combining your thinking, research, goals,
and gut instincts.
3. Acquire the skills you need. Everyone is born with innate talents,
but skills are learned and developed. You may be a natural born actor,
but that won’t help you work with a camera. You’ll still need to learn
about blocking, lighting, movement, and inflection for today’s
sophisticated technologies. You may need managing or bookkeeping skills
to run a business. You’ll need special training to be a dentist,
firefighter, or circus clown. Don’t expect your doorbell to ring with
the offer of a lifetime until you know what you’re doing.
4. Find support. Surround yourself with people who support your desires
and believe in your ability to prevail. Just one person is enough to
start with. No one ever succeeds alone.
5. Believe in yourself. No plan can succeed if you lack faith in
yourself. Conceive, believe, achieve.

Once you have developed your plan, stop worrying about things you can’t
control. Work hard, but remember to enjoy the moment. You have a great
plan. All you have to do is follow it.

Exercise: Before Tomorrow Is Yesterday
If you plan your destiny carefully, you’ll succeed beyond your wildest
dreams. Here’s a quick practice to familiarize you with realistic planning.

1. At the top of a sheet of paper, list three goals for today. (They can
be three errands or phone calls or letters you want to do, or even just
the task of eating breakfast, lunch, and dinner.)

2. Below them, write an Action Plan. How will you achieve these three
goals? What steps will you take? What is your timetable?

3. Write a Resources List. What help, tools, backup, or input will you
need? Whose support or encouragement will you seek?

4. Finally, determine how you will know when each goal is achieved, and
write that down too.

Easy? Okay, let’s keep going. Get four more sheets of paper. At the top
of the first, write “Goals to achieve by a week from today.” Label the
others, “By a year from today,” “By five years from today,” and “By ten
years from today.”

Expand your Action Plan and your Resources List. Do you need to change
something you are doing or something in your surroundings or
circumstances to meet these goals? If so, do so.

* * *
If you fail to plan you plan to fail. Plan your work and work your plan

Cynthia Brian, ASID, NY Times best selling co-author of Chicken Soup for
the Gardener’s Soul , author of Be the Star You Are!®, 99 Gifts for
Living, Loving, Laughing, and Learning to Make a Difference, The
Business of Show Business, and Miracle Moments®, is an internationally
acclaimed key note speaker, personal growth consultant, host of radio
and TV shows, syndicated columnist and acting coach.
(www.star-style.com) Tune into her weekly syndicated radio program,
Starstyle-Be the Star You Are! every Thursday live from 3-4pm PST at
http://www.worldtalkradio.com/show.asp?sid=118 For coaching or to
purchase books, call 925-377-STAR (7827).

Your job will go too. But you can do something about it!

“…the magnitude of the approaching economic trade shock will be much larger than anything in our historical memory.” “Thinking about outsourcing”

This article deals with the realities of outsourcing and robotization today, how they directly affect YOU, and what you can do to be prepared. Later on I explain the consequences of these changes and recommend a set of actions to prevent and take advantage of this situation for each one of us and for policy makers. In order to maximise the reach of this article, plain language is used purposely. This is not an academic paper and shouldn’t be read as such. This is a blog post. Besides, what I express here is my opinion today. I may be wrong in some things (comments welcome!) and I reserve the right to change my mind anytime (are you always right? :). I can’t see the future, just show my perspective and give you my best advice. And don’t complain, you are getting it for free!
Oh! If I linked you in this article, I would appreciate a link back!
There is a great link collection throughout the article and a better one at the end of it. But read the article first. You’ll like it:

********Outsourcing, immigration and robotization.********
********How do they affect YOU, and what can you do about it?********

A look into the future

“I was in a building with 500 people,” says Soong. “Then they started to offshore. Nine months later we were down to 50 people.” from No Americans need to apply

“If your name card shows a title “Programmer” and you are not in India or China, it is time to re-evaluate your options.” James Seng blog

What is outsourcing?
Outsourcing occurs where an organisation passes the provision of a service or execution of a task previously undertaken in-house to a third party to perform on its behalf. Offshore outsourcing is…well, basically, the same thing, but taken out of your country and performed/produced somewhere else.

Why do companies outsource?
To make more money. We can talk for hours on the text book reasons for it, but it all comes down to make more money. Cheaper providers = larger profits

Is outsourcing always necessary, in all sectors, and in all countries?
No. But sometimes companies are forced to outsource to stay in business, if competitors have done it and they haven’t been able to differentiate themselves to continue charging customers the same money for their product. Even if a company is forced to outsource, it is a complex decision that has to be taken carefully.

Is outsourcing always a good idea?
No, it is not. Especially if you outsource to the wrong country, or at the wrong time. You may well end up losing money or bankrupt. It happens to around 50% of companies that try.
Besides if a company outsources too much, or too early, it may well lose too much control over operations.
If, in the other hand, a government outsources too much, it may loose too much control over -its=your- privacy and national security.(perhaps already happening “U.S. defence contractors sending classified work to China?”) Moreover, companies may also run into difficulties anytime while trying to manage the whole process effectively:

“One of our tasks in business schools is to train people to manage the virtual, globally distributed corporation. How do you manage employees you can’t even see?” “The Future Of Outsourcing”. Business week

So what does robotics have to do with outsourcing, Javier?
Well, for me, it doesn’t make a difference who your job is outsourced to. Robotization is one more kind of outsourcing. The end result is the same. A worker is replaced, and someone/something else takes its place.
It doesn’t matter to me if the end product is made by machines, or people; if they look human or dress in yellow or pray five times a day. As Buddha used to do, I concentrate on the issue and its consequences. Details are unimportant to me.

So who will take my job, if I may ask, Javier?
Well, it depends where you are and what you do today. Most probably, you’ll be substituted by a machine -that may or may not have human aspect- or by a foreign worker. Perhaps it will be a human looking robot.

“For the future, engineers at Hepworth are looking at other sections of the manufacture of their products using manual labour, with a view to introducing more Kawasaki robots to give a more reliable and efficient production line.” (http://www.kawasakirobot.co.uk/news.htm#2)

Perhaps who takes your current job is one of the million engineers who graduated this year in India. Perhaps an equatorian or African immigrant who sells her baby sitting services for half your hourly rate…
Of course, there are a few jobs that people may keep working for others, but 90% of the current jobs in the Western world can and will be outsourced in one way or another sooner or later.

Not only cheaper, but better? We are the weakest link. Robots are here
So you think that robots still have a long way to go (decades?) to take your job? Think twice.
I am not sure if you know, but there are already fully automated 24 h convenience stores and post offices (do you work in one of these?)

In any case, there are machines and robots today that can autonomously drive trains, cars and airplanes, cook food, clean, catch you speeding, provide guidance for and escort guests, assist the elderly, disabled, or ill, transport objects and people, mow your lawn, play with your kids, wage wars, entertain you, move parcels around, be your receptionist, a fireman and a teacher, do security patrolling, , and much more…
Nowadays some robots even look human, can talk, hold limited conversations with you, and learn.

Some of these machines are already substituting workers around the globe. Examples are already around us in retail, airline check-in desks, automatic answering systems and others.
At an astonishing pace, their price, abilities and autonomy are improving every day.
At the time of writing this article you can get a fully automated vacuum cleaner for around 200 dollars, and there are already more than 100 robotic commercialisation projects in the global public arena.

Ok. Maybe. But what is the rush, anyway, Javier?
What you are saying will take decades!
If I have so far conveyed to you a slight feeling of anxiety in you… if you are already thinking on the implications that all what I am saying have for you, I am doing well. Your next question would be: “ok Javier, say it happens, but…when?”

Well, the answer is: now. All this is happening right now, at your doorstep. How come?
Well, in my opinion, the most critical factor that is accelerating change today is the same one letting you read these words: the internet. “Everyone” in the developed world is getting connected nowadays. And thus, the speed of change increases exponentially. We can’t compare it to any other previous time in history.
For example: say that a few years ago, you had several teams of scientists working on a project to build robot parts in different parts of the world, right? Some of them were doing robotic hands, others heads, others eyes, etc…each one of them specializing in one particular thing. Unfortunately, and due to a lack of communication between the people working in these projects at that time, a lot of research would sometimes duplicate, “re-inventing the wheel”, or just trying to make something that you didn’t know someone else was doing much better that yourself, perhaps on the other side of the world.

Today that wouldn’t happen. Or at least not that much. Today, the knowledge and advances made by the brightest human minds in many different areas -from software to biotechnology, from management to baby sitting, from robotics to catering- are pooled and published in a few key places over the internet and all these bright minds have immediate access to it. Don’t believe me? Have a look at androidworld.com

Today an increased number of people are aware of these advances, and projects don’t duplicate that much anymore.
Thus, when everybody knows what the others are doing and can contact them and work in partnership with them in real time-”you’ll do the hand and I’ll do the eyes of the robot”- the pace of progress increases dramatically. The latest advances in robotics are an example of this trend.

Of course, we could try to ignore the problem in the hope that it will go away…
A few years ago I set out to do something that no company was doing in Spain, at least at the middle-sized business sector.

Through the old Artwater we offered ourselves as a consulting, web Design and translation hub to Spanish companies interested in learning more and acting upon outsourcing opportunities. We specialized in Eastern European countries, where we had some key contacts and critical market information.

It turned out to be my first business failure. Some say we were ahead of our time. There just weren’t any companies that we could afford to attract within our marketing budget, and the Spanish business sector and government chose to turn their back to this problem, hoping it would go away somehow.

This was a typical case of corporate blindness. I think the Spanish loss of competitiveness arising from these and other critical missed opportunities will be almost impossible to revert in the near future.

As Spain lost its chance, would you like to lose your personal chance by ignoring the realities around you? Would this be a wise decision for you and your family? Ignoring things won’t change reality. Actions change reality. So I propose you to take action today. I invite you to think of your life, your job and your career in a completely different way, turning the tables in your favour.

Or we could try to profit the new opportunities that these changes bring us!
Oh. And before you oversimplify and blame others for stealing you job, learn that Indians and others may not like so much this modern kind of slavery.

“…this business has given birth to an entirely new generation of this Urban Yuppie Kid who, instead of having his sights on his career, his future, has his sights firmly transfixed on the computer screen, answering queries for a citizen in the West.”

So who is the winner? No one. We are all in the same boat. Nobody is guilty. We have to look after ourselves first and then work all together for a better world, in which conditions improve for all of us. It is the only way forward in the long term. (and no, the winners are not the “implementers” of the change, or the richest people, because a badly implemented robotic society will replace absolutely all of us, humans, including the creators/founders. We are creating superior beings to us)

The eternal circle: rising wages and loss of competitiveness of one country, make the industries move to the next cheaper country.
Another point to bear in mind for China India and other “low cost economies” is what I have seen this in several countries where I lived: as a country develops, it becomes costlier to produce goods there, and the capital moves overseas. Examples are Spanish automotive plants that close down to move operations to Poland or Slovakia, Irish software ventures that leave for China…

“…in India are growing rapidly (around 7% a year). India is thinking of accepting the VAT laws that would also raise the prices. The amount of IT specialists India produces each year is scaring and the quality seems to drop a LOT.”

In the Eastern European countries, this process has meant “watching the train pass by without stopping at our station” The changes have been so swift and powerful, that these countries have become to expensive even before experiencing “the eternal circle”

The psychological and personal cost of outsourcing in society

Outsourcing accelerates creative destruction, which can be good for innovative and market-based economies overall, but terribly difficult for displaced communities and individuals in the process. from “Offshore Outsourcing and the future of American competitiveness”

The psychological repercussions of outsourcing are also showing to be potentially devastating and are material for another post. But suffice to think: if you lost your job now, how would you pay your bills, the house, the clothing for the kids, let alone the little luxuries we are all accustomed to have when we are at work? How does the human brain react to this loss and the stress that follows? How would this affect your self esteem and how long would it take you to feel down and enter the immobilizing spiral of depression?
And let’s also remember that outsourcing sooner or later affects us all -stock brokers, cameramen, engineers, middle managers- , not only blue collar workers:

This new set of potentially tradable jobs are in many cases held by people who are not “accustomed” to layoffs. Often they are high paying, clean, good jobs. Some are the best jobs. The people who hold them are quite convinced that they are on top–that they have these jobs and that these jobs are well paying–because they are the best people who deserve to have them: they are smart and industrious. In school they worked, while others screwed around. Sacrifices were made in order for them to attend college. They worked hard in college.
“Thinking about outsourcing” linked above

Nearly one third of US workers who lose their jobs will not find other jobs within a year, and in Germany the redeployment rate might only be 40%

(…) In India there are more than 18 million graduates per year, more than a million of them in engineering, and a further 16 million people obtaining engineering diplomas. This entire workforce is English speaking.
(…) he believes that off-shoring could save 11 million pounds in the public sector

Things people don’t know or forget when talking about outsourcing, but you should know
The end goal in the capitalist system, is to search for continuous productivity improvements.

By its very nature, this economic system will always move production to wherever resources can be found at a minimum cost, as fast as possible. It will also tend to get rid of any element of production (yes, that includes people) that performs below the standards expected in comparison with other elements, doing the same amount of work in a chain as short as possible from raw material to end product/service.

“They are building a multimillion-dollar plant in Mexico and they are going to build the Freightliners down there. They came in and videotaped us at work so they could train the Mexican workers,” said Zimmer, 55, who had worked at Freightliner since 1994.

Bearing in mind these realities, this is a list of what outsourcing means for YOU, and other things you should know:

* Outsourcing and the migration of work can happen to most industries, and countries, as long as there is a cheaper option somewhere else. It is not “if”, but “when”. Today it is China. Tomorrow will be Africa. From Spain to Hungary, from the US to India, the jobs will go.
* Your job will disappear without notice. It is a common policy not to let people know who will be fired, and when. The reason behind this is simple: if you know you’ll be fired, you won’t produce as much, and you are more prone to information theft, and sabotage of company property.
* No matter how high you are in your organisation’s ranking, your job can and will most probably be outsourced at some point. This includes managerial positions.
* The outsourcing process is gradual. It doesn’t happen all at once. So even if you still have your job and feel secure, you should be distributing and following the action suggested in this article NOW, among other things, because…
* If you are made redundant at the same time as everyone else in your company/sector, you’ll be in a pretty bad position, as all that people will be looking for work in the same place, at the same time than you do.
* In case the there is still an untouched industry in your area after the outsourcing process and you can get work, hourly wages will always be equal or less than those of the country where the cheapest labour is. If this is not legally possible in your country, the industry of business sector will just disappear, so you won’t have a job at all. Not even badly paid.
* Unskilled labour force will have no work whatsoever. Trains won’t need drivers. Houses will be built differently, by machines, probably with pre fabricated elements, etc
* Education is the only thing that can make the difference between having a job or not having one. However, unlike in the past, having an education will not be an “automatic passport” to employment. As the systems become more complex to program and manage -as long as they need human input- the requirements to find a job will be higher, and more technical.

In most western societies, as the cost of living increases and the wages decrease at the same time that the jobs disappear, there will be mainly three ways of living: 1/you are self employed in a skilled business sector. 2/You have one of the few jobs around, probably on a temporary basis, without any kind of benefits, and at the low end of the pay scale. 3/You are very close to, if not in, homelessness. As the time passes by, option 2 tends to disappear.

* If you are unemployed, unemployment benefits will run out at some point, and you’ll be homeless. Many people would say that this is impossible, since the government would provide “some kind of solution”. This is a good point. But bear in mind that that would only happen if the job loss IS NOT massive and happens over a very short period of time. This kind of job loss where millions of people claim unemployment benefits at once is fairly possible today. As computing power increases, jobs are less dependent on labour force, scientists work together developing amazing technological solutions in shorter periods of time, communication channels improve or reduce their price notoriously (think Skype) and customers and companies get used to new ways of buying/selling/communicating, simplifying processes and streamlining whole industries. Thus the speed of the outsourcing process increases exponentially.

Just think on this simple example: if you wanted to move a chocolate cookie factory with 100 employees that produced 1 million dollars a year profit fifty years ago, it would have taken you, say, 1 year minimum. Today, moving a whole business offshore can be done much quicker by finding reliable partners -or buying their companies outright- and transferring data between servers. What would have taken years before, can be done in three months. (think Consulting, Financial, Technological, E-commerce services and others)
The new business wouldn’t lose the old clients and would be producing millions of dollars in profits a year. And existing clients may not even know that you have moved… (Javier Marti)

Have a cool new telecom or medical device but lack market researchers? For about $5,000, analytics outfits such as New Delhi-based Evalueserve Inc. will, within a day, assemble a team of Indian patent attorneys, engineers, and business analysts, start mining global databases, and call dozens of U.S. experts and wholesalers to provide an independent appraisal. (”The future of outsourcing” Business week)

* the Public sector is equally vulnerable to outsourcing as the private sector, so… no; your job as a civil servant is not immune to outsourcing.

“…he believes that off-shoring could save 11 million pounds in the public sector.”
From “Off-shoring: process, pain or profit”

“Going forward, the quality and intensity of global competition are likely to increase. Foreign nations will continue to work to make their business climate and infrastructure more attractive (…) and many will retain a labour cost advantage for the foreseeable future.” from “Offshore Outsourcing and the future of American competitiveness”

So what is the solution, Javier?

As an individual:

* Get an education RIGHT NOW (but don’t count on it as a guarantee for lifetime employment). Learn to interact with computers. As my father would say, “I am not sure what your chances of success will be if you pursue higher education, but I know what they’ll be like if you don’t” (in this case will be homelessness) Even if you choose to work in the trades, the days of unskilled labour force in the western world are numbered. As a window cleaner, a carpenter or a travelling salesman, you’ll still need to interact, at least, with handheld computers, several times a day, in order to report to your base.
* Learn all what you can about business, marketing and selling.
* Prepare to keep learning throughout your life
* If you are not computer literate, enrol in a course as soon as possible.
* Learn to write and express yourself properly in your language
* If you are a self trader on the trades or some high demand, semi low skilled profession, set up a company, make a good website where people can learn about, book and pay for your services, take on apprentices and expand your operations as fast as possible. Take a good position in your niche before a bigger, lean, automated, internet-based company breaks into your niche market.
* If you are in any other self employed position, follow the steps to expand operations outlined above and make sure you are properly networked with good contacts you can use in the case that 1) demand exceeds your capacity (read my article about Social Bookmarking) or 2) you run out of business.
* Set up your business in a sector that will take longer to be affected by these changes (high level of skill or creativity needed) such as being a writer, designer, musician, inventor, marketing strategist, or film actor. You can also specialize on a trade or skill that requires hands on presence such as a carpenter, nurse, physician, dental hygienist, or hair stylist. Other industries careers or business sectors likely to take longer to be affected: residential care, marketing and sales workers & supervisors, social services, top executives, personnel supply services, special education services, psychologists and security services.
Some of these business sectors will be affected by automation and robotization (namely security and health services) but there will also be increased demand for them in the future.
* If you are an artist, don’t ever think that you could live out of your art in the future. Robots can also make music pleasant enough for humans, play it (see also wasubot, and videos), dance to it, act virtually, perform for theatre, paint, and even create movies. And they’ll get better at it.
Of course, in a world of robots, the richest people will still buy art made by humans. (as long as it is fashionable. Remember: humans are gregarious individuals). But this will be a tiny proportion of a tiny market sector.
* Learn about and apply for any subsidies your government provides to small business. Depending on your country, some of these schemes can be quite useful.

Immigration and entrepreneurship
You may have noticed that I have a bias towards self entrepreneurship, uh? So why is it so, Javier?
Well, the reason is that I have realized that no matter how well you do your job, if you work for others you can always be replaced by lower cost labour coming across your countries borders: illegal, or semi-legal immigrants. As the poor countries get even poorer, the current inbound immigration pressure will continue towards the developed world.

But why would governments continue to allow the existence of a black economy?
Because having a good pool of foreign workers within the country increases productivity. You see, a foreign labour force pool with little rights helps to keep the nationals in check and thus keeps wages down. That way, the country is more competitive internationally. (I know I am simplifying a lot here…) Examples are Mexicans in USA, Ukrainians in Czech Republic, and Ecuadorians in Spain. If you work for others, even if your work cannot easily be outsourced or automated, there will always be someone willing to do it for less money, and he’ll be competing with you in the job market.

If, in the other hand, you are a business, you are “on the other side of the fence”, employing this cheaper labour pool. (yes, I know it is not ethically correct. Sorry. I didn’t invent market forces. I am trying to help YOU here, not to save the whole world)

As a business owner, you choose who you employ, and you cannot be sacked.
You “just” have to make sure that your business continues to attract. See why I told you to learn about business as much as you can?
Oh, yes, one more reason to become a business: your other option may be unemployment. Which one do you prefer?

“There is now an inequality in the distribution of work, and for an increasing number of young people, only part-time or casual work is available.
There is a paradigm shift towards part-time, casual and contract work. Australia is
moving from a low skill base to a high skill base required in an information society.
This in turn relates to the unequal distribution of resources and the ability to
participate in paid employment and leisure activities.” http://hsc.csu.edu.au/pta/scansw/work.html

And what can you do, as a policy maker?
(Wowwww…this is a tricky one!)

* Make sure you differentiate your products/country of the competition, always on quality, never on price
* Concentrate your marketing and production efforts on the 20% of clients having the purchasing power to buy your services (Pareto rule)
* Promote the utilization of the latest technologies in every business sector and industry
* Tax and fine heavily enterprises not complying with the national economic plan (yeah, yeah, I can hear you, free markets and all that… But I am talking here about countries that are not in a state to take any risk anymore, and need a shock treatment to get back as big players in the global economy, you see?)
* Create a panel of “Change-watchers” whose sole purpose is to keep up with advances in all areas in order to legislate accordingly, and notify early the appropriate government planning agencies
* Simplify. Don’t waste resources in lost battles. Close down industries that need to be closed down, NOW. The harm will be in the short term, but it is the right thing to do in the long term (I know this point sounds idealistic, is complex and goes against politicians ambitions, I know…)
* Specialize your country in something and be the best at it. Have a maximum of 3 main industries. Never more. Seriously strive to be the best in at least one of them.
* Take advantage of indigenous factors that other countries lack
* Ensure the industries you are concentrating in have a future, and that your country has the skills in its people to deal with the next “state of things”. Prepare people for change since elementary school.
* Retrain people in a continuous basis.
* Make business studies an embedded part of your education system starting at elementary school.
* Ensure a consistent, aggressive and dynamic image of your country is received by every potential partner at all times in all places.
* Use technology to promote your countries products. Embrace change keeping your identity.
* Bring the best foreign talent you can, as soon as possible, and reward them appropriately and consistently for their efforts. They’ll bring in more quality people later on.

“Whatever industry you’re in, planning for your future should be done carefully and cautiously.”

—————————————————–

Have I forgotten anything? any more bullet points you think I should add to my conclusions? Let me know and I’ll add them, duly quoting you, of course!!

Well…This is the best stuff I have learnt in 30 years in this world, and this article and its links took me two weeks of work. I hope it helped you somehow.

If you liked this article, please ADD IT TO DELICIOUS, Digg, and other social bookmarking sites, link to it, leave your comment and share it, so we all learn more through each other. You can also quote the whole or part of this article anywhere, as long as you keep the link back here in a visible place, and mention me, Javier Marti, as the author. Thanks!

If you think that I know the stuff I talk about here, please let this material reach the people who can contract my services. I don’t ask for donations, but I want to work in what I love.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Javier Marti is a Business Consultant, digital artist, speaker and trainer. Founder of Trendirama.com
Born in Uruguay in 1975, he has lived in Spain, Ireland and the UK
Javier lives today in Bristol, England. You can see his blog at
http://niquel757.blogspot.com
He is also available for speaking engagements overseas.
You can see Javier’s blog at http://niquel757.blogspot.com

Bibliography - An interesting collection of links about robotics and offshore outsourcing
http://www.workinfo.com/free/Downloads/89.htm
http://www2.cio.com/ask/expert/2005/questions/question2123.html
http://www.employment-studies.co.uk/summary/summary.php?id=320
http://www.globalchange.com/outsourcing.htm
http://www.informit.com/articles/article.asp?p=101365&rl=1
http://www.a1technology.com/blog/2005/10/future-of-offshore-outsourcing.htm
http://www.russoft.org/docs/?doc=705
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_05/b3969401.htm
http://news.com.com/Will+China+dominate+outsourcings+future/2008-1022_3-5668199.html
http://www.careerplanner.com/Career-Articles/Top_Jobs.htm
http://www.dol.govt.nz/futureofwork/hotjobs.asp
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=10136559&dopt=Abstract
http://www.collegerecruiter.com/pages/articles/article30.htm
http://www.readersdigest.ca/mag/2000/06/living_job.html
http://www.ugobe.com
http://www.marshallbrain.blogspot.com
http://hsc.csu.edu.au/pta/scansw/work.html

The Trendinews Test

Congratulations on the intiation of a new web site which should really get off the ground. The world has become a small place - global village to be exact. This site in its originality could fill a void that is left by major newsites. It should talk to the reader rather than at him or her with facts and figures that very few readers are even interested in seeing.

Articles should be short. Most readers are very busy people and do not have the time to wade through long articles filled with detail that would only interest a specialist in a particular subject.

It is always more difficult to write a short article than a long one. Waste on verbage is never to the readers’ advantage but only adds to his frustration and eventual boredom. The article is then skimmed over by the reader who in his/her hurry often misses the point and worse still does not comprehend what has been written least of all the message conveyed.

Good luck, Xavier, I hope this project succeeds. I shall help where I can.

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Trendirama.com claims no ownership or control over any Content submitted, posted or displayed by you on or through Trendirama.com. You or a third party licensor, as appropriate, retain all patent, trademark and copyright to any Content you submit, post or display on or through Trendirama.com ’s website and you are responsible for protecting those rights, as appropriate. By submitting, posting or displaying Content on or through Trendirama.com, you grant Trendirama.com a worldwide, non-exclusive, royalty-free license to reproduce, adapt, distribute and publish such Content through Trendirama.com, including RSS or other content feeds offered through Trendirama.com,  and other Trendirama.com services.  In addition, by submitting, posting or displaying Content which is intended to be available to the general public, you grant Trendirama.com a worldwide, non-exclusive, royalty-free license to reproduce, adapt, distribute and publish such Content for the purpose of displaying, distributing and promoting Trendirama.com services. Trendirama.com will discontinue this licensed use within a commercially reasonable period after such Content is removed from Trendirama.com. Trendirama.com reserves the right to refuse to accept, post, display or transmit any Content in its sole discretion.

5. POLICIES REGARDING COPYRIGHT AND TRADEMARKS

It is our policy to respond to notices of alleged infringement that comply with The European Union’ Digital Millennium Copyright Act or other applicable law.
Any use of Trendirama.com’s trade names, trademarks, service marks, logos, domain names, and other distinctive brand features must be in compliance with this Terms of Service and in compliance with Trendirama.com’s then current Brand Feature use guidelines, and any content contained or reference therein.

6.  GENERAL PRACTICES REGARDING USE, STORAGE AND SERVICE

You agree that Trendirama.com has no responsibility or liability for the deletion or failure to store or make available any Content and other communications maintained or transmitted by Trendirama.com. You acknowledge that Trendirama.com has the right, at its sole discretion, to limit the number of transmissions you may send or receive through Trendirama.com ’s website or the amount of storage space, bandwidth, or other resources you may use, and Trendirama.com has the right to terminate or suspend your account based on usage that exceeds these limits.  You may elect to purchase other services or resources such as additional storage space.  Payments for such purchases are nonrefundable.

Upon the termination of your use of Trendirama.com ., including upon receipt of a certificate or other legal document confirming your death, Trendirama.com will close your account and you will no longer be able to retrieve content contained in that account.

7. NO RESALE OF SERVICE

You agree not to reproduce, duplicate, copy, sell, trade, resell or exploit for any commercial purposes, any portion of Trendirama.com ., use of Trendirama.com ., or access to Trendirama.com ..

8. MODIFICATIONS TO SERVICE

Trendirama.com reserves the right at any time and from time to time to modify or discontinue, temporarily or permanently, Trendirama.com ’s website(or any part thereof) with or without notice. You agree that Trendirama.com shall not be liable to you or to any third party for any modification, suspension or discontinuance of Trendirama.com ..

9. TERMINATION

You may discontinue your use of Trendirama.com ’s website at any time.  You agree that Trendirama.com may at any time and for any reason, including a period of account inactivity, terminate your access to Trendirama.com, terminate the Terms of Service, or suspend or terminate your account. In the event of termination, your account will be disabled and you may not be granted access to Trendirama.com ., your account or any files or other content contained in your account. Sections 9 (Termination), 12 (Indemnity), 13 (Disclaimer of Warranties), 14 (Limitations of Liability), 15 (Exclusions and Limitations) and 18 (including choice of law, severability and statute of limitations), of the Terms of Service, shall survive expiration or termination.

10. ADVERTISEMENTS

Some Trendirama.com services are supported by advertising revenue and may display advertisements and promotions on the service. The manner, mode and extent of advertising by Trendirama.com on its services are subject to change. You agree that Trendirama.com shall not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage of any sort incurred by you as a result of any such dealings or as the result of the presence of such advertisers on Trendirama.com services.

11. LINKS

Trendirama.com may provide, or third parties may provide, links to other World Wide Web sites or resources. Because Trendirama.com has no control over such sites and resources, you acknowledge and agree that Trendirama.com is not responsible for the availability of such external sites or resources, and does not endorse and is not responsible or liable for any Content, advertising, products, or other materials on or available from such sites or resources. You further acknowledge and agree that Trendirama.com shall not be responsible or liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with use of or reliance on any such Content, goods or services available on or through any such site or resource.

12. INDEMNITY

You agree to hold harmless and indemnify Trendirama.com, and its subsidiaries, affiliates, officers, agents, and employees, advertisers or partners, from and against any third party claim arising from or in any way related to your use of Trendirama.com, violation of this Terms of Service or any other actions connected with use of Trendirama.com ., including any liability or expense arising from all claims, losses, damages (actual and consequential), suits, judgments, litigation costs and attorneys’ fees, of every kind and nature. In such a case, Trendirama.com will provide you with written notice of such claim, suit or action.

13. DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES

YOU EXPRESSLY UNDERSTAND AND AGREE THAT:

YOUR USE OF Trendirama.com ’s websiteIS AT YOUR SOLE RISK. Trendirama.com ’s websiteARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE” BASIS. TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, Trendirama.com EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES AND CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES AND CONDITIONS OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NON-INFRINGEMENT.

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ANY MATERIAL DOWNLOADED OR OTHERWISE OBTAINED THROUGH THE USE OF Trendirama.com ’s website IS DONE AT YOUR OWN DISCRETION AND RISK AND THAT YOU WILL BE SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DAMAGE TO YOUR COMPUTER SYSTEM OR OTHER DEVICE OR LOSS OF DATA THAT RESULTS FROM THE DOWNLOAD OF ANY SUCH MATERIAL.

NO ADVICE OR INFORMATION, WHETHER ORAL OR WRITTEN, OBTAINED BY YOU FROM Trendirama.com OR THROUGH OR FROM Trendirama.com ’s websiteSHALL CREATE ANY WARRANTY NOT EXPRESSLY STATED IN THE TERMS OF SERVICE.

14. LIMITATION OF LIABILITY

YOU EXPRESSLY UNDERSTAND AND AGREE THAT Trendirama.com SHALL NOT BE LIABLE TO YOU FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, CONSEQUENTIAL OR EXEMPLARY DAMAGES, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, DAMAGES FOR LOSS OF PROFITS, GOODWILL, USE, DATA OR OTHER INTANGIBLE LOSSES (EVEN IF Trendirama.com HAS BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES) RESULTING FROM: (I) THE USE OR THE INABILITY TO USE Trendirama.com .; (II) THE COST OF PROCUREMENT OF SUBSTITUTE GOODS AND SERVICES RESULTING FROM ANY GOODS, DATA, INFORMATION OR SERVICES PURCHASED OR OBTAINED OR MESSAGES RECEIVED OR TRANSACTIONS ENTERED INTO THROUGH OR FROM Trendirama.com .; (III) UNAUTHORIZED ACCESS TO OR ALTERATION OF YOUR TRANSMISSIONS OR DATA; (IV) STATEMENTS OR CONDUCT OF ANY THIRD PARTY ON Trendirama.com .; OR (V) ANY OTHER MATTER RELATING TO Trendirama.com ..

15. EXCLUSIONS AND LIMITATIONS

NOTHING IN THIS AGREEMENT IS INTENDED TO EXCLUDE OR LIMIT ANY CONDITION, WARRANTY, RIGHT OR LIABILITY WHICH MAY NOT BE LAWFULLY EXCLUDED OR LIMITED.  SOME JURISDICTIONS DO NOT ALLOW THE EXCLUSION OF CERTAIN WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OR THE LIMITATION OR EXCLUSION OF LIABILITY FOR LOSS OR DAMAGE CAUSED BY NEGLIGENCE, BREACH OF CONTRACT OR BREACH OF IMPLIED TERMS, OR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES.  ACCORDINGLY, ONLY THE ABOVE LIMITATIONS IN SECTIONS 14 AND 15 WHICH ARE LAWFUL IN YOUR JURISDICTION WILL APPLY TO YOU AND OUR LIABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW.

16. NO THIRD PARTY BENEFICIARIES

You agree that, except as otherwise expressly provided in this Terms of Service, there shall be no third party beneficiaries to the Terms of Service.

17. NOTICE

You agree that Trendirama.com may provide you with notices, including those regarding changes to the Terms of Service, by email, regular mail, or postings on Trendirama.com ..

18. GENERAL INFORMATION

Entire Agreement. The Terms of Service (including any policies, guidelines or amendments that may be presented to your form time to time) constitute the entire agreement between you and Trendirama.com and govern your use of Trendirama.com ., superseding any prior agreements between you and Trendirama.com for the use of Trendirama.com .. You also may be subject to additional terms and conditions that may apply when you use or purchase certain other Trendirama.com services, affiliate services, third-party content or third-party software.

Choice of Law and Forum. The Terms of Service and the relationship between you and Trendirama.com shall be governed by the laws of the European Union without regard to its conflict of law provisions.

Waiver and Severability of Terms. The failure of Trendirama.com to exercise or enforce any right or provision of the Terms of Service shall not constitute a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of the Terms of Service is found by a court of competent jurisdiction to be invalid, the parties nevertheless agree that the court should endeavor to give effect to the parties’ intentions as reflected in the provision, and the other provisions of the Terms of Service remain in full force and effect.

Statute of Limitations. You agree that regardless of any statute or law to the contrary, any claim or cause of action arising out of or related to use of Trendirama.com ’s websiteor the Terms of Service must be filed within one (1) year after such claim or cause of action arose or be forever barred.

Trendirama.com Acceptable Use Policy

# For Writers/Authors
# For Webmasters/Publishers
# Privacy
# Limitations and Disclaimers
# Copyright Violations

For Writers/Authors:
A1 - ALL articles must be written in English, or any other appropriate language as described in the Trendirama.com website.
A2 - Upon submission of your article/s at Trendirama.com you claim that you own the article/s and have full rights to it.
A3 - You have to submit your valid email address for the purpose of receiving feedbacks from readers using our ‘email the author’ feature. We will never sell and give out your email unless required by law.
A4 - By submitting your articles you agree to give us full and unconditional permission to publish your article at www.Trendirama.com and distribute it to all article sites and article mailing groups we support, if opted to distribute.
A5 - Since our article directory service is FREE. Submitting your articles would also mean that you give permission for other webmasters/publishers to reprint your articles provided that they publish the articles as is and together with your bylines.
A6 - Your article is comprehensively checked for foul and invalid content. We reserve the right to either publish or reject your article upon submission.
A7 - By submitting your article to Trendirama.com you agree to give us the right to edit your article and strip out promotional content (such as but not limited to: your site’s links and domain) inserted in the body. Trendirama.com is only interested in valid, informational and quality ezine articles and not promotional articles. If we find that your article contains more than 50% promotional content or your article totally talks about your site and/or service we reserve the right to disapprove your article or move it under Classifieds category, see section A8 below.
A8 - For articles found to be “Classified” articles, we will not approve them not unless you have paid the classified article posting fee. For more information click here. Trendirama.com is a free articles directory for websites and ezines, press releases are not accepted so please do not submit them.
A9 - Trendirama.com does not fully guarantee that your article/s will be published in our site. We do not allow articles that contain only advertising content and articles that we find invalid. An article could be invalid if it contains: foul, hate, racism, SPAM and other forms of bad content.
A10 - We also reserve the right to re-categorize your article if it fits in another category.
A11 - Trendirama.com is a free service and operates by accepting advertisements as fundings to keep the service alive. We reserve the right to post any advertisements on any of your article pages.
A12 - We will only proofread articles submitted by our platinum members (if opted to proofread the article/s), but we still reserve the right to edit or modify your articles if we find that they do not comply with the Standard English Language Spelling. If your article was edited and published but you do not want it to be edited please contact the admin.
A13 - Trendirama.com does not guarantee as to how many times your article/s can be reprinted or viewed by the public.
A14 - We DO NOT allow “fake authors” submitting non-original articles. You have to be a representative of the author or authorized by the author to submit. Articles submitted by representatives must have the original author’s name as author and not the representative.
A15 - If an article is proven to be plagiarized, we reserve the right to delete the article without any questions asked.
A16 - You agree that if your articles are opted for distribution by you and distributed by Trendirama.com. Trendirama.com does not hold any legal liability or responsibility for the articles distributed if the articles are found to be violating any copyright laws. The role of Trendirama.com in it’s article distribution service is only to distribute the article but the ownership and copyright remains with you as the author.
A17 - You agree that if your article contains gambling or casino contents and/or keywords Trendirama.com will append a rel=”nofollow” in the link tag in the site but not in distribution.
A18 - We do not allow and condone plagiarism in our free articles service.
A19 - we reserve the right to edit the author’s profile to best suit the business needs
A20 - By including a copyright notice other than Trendirama’s in the article submitted, the writer expressly renounces to any compensation in the form of publicity or any other income that said article may generate in the present or future
A21 - Trendirama.com reserves the right to publish any article in other mediums, as and when necessary, modifying profile

Whilst we aim to ensure that all information contained on this site and in our reports is accurate and correct, we cannot be held responsible or made liable for the correctness, completeness or accuracy of any information provided. Similarly we cannot be held liable for any damages or claims as a result of reading or using this information.

For Webmasters/Publishers:
B1 - Our service is a free service. Though we have a paid distribution feature, still our article submission service is free. We do not have any liabilities on any damage or harm our published articles may cause you.
B2 - We at Trendirama.com do not own 100% of every article’s copyright, but as stated above upon submission of the article to our site we reserve the right to publish it in our free articles directory service.
B3 - Know and respect that the copyrights of the articles belong to the authors and not to us.
B4 - Copy or reprint the FULL article as it is shown in the article’s page including the “About The Author” section. If you wish to edit the article for grammar or spelling please contact the author to ask permission.
B5 - Always activate or hyperlink the Links and/or URLs found in the author’s bio (About The Author), if the article will be reprinted in a site, blog, forum or any other publication as long as it is online. To reprint and article offline you need to contact the author for permission and include the URL/s in the author’s resource box in print.
B6 - You agree to include a link at the bottom of the article, “source: www.Trendirama.com” if you publish the article in your website/blog/forum. Links should be clickable leading to www.Trendirama.com
B7 - You are not entitled and do not have rights to publish these articles at any warez, porn, mp3, or at any adult sites that all laws on any country finds unlawful.
B8 - You also agree not to include or reprint the articles for any unlawful online acts such as spamming and any other form of unsolicited email.
B9 - You agree not to sell any articles in our directory to anyone for any purpose. As well as you agree not to charge any fee for accessing or reprinting any articles in our directory.
B10 - We do not limit the number of reprints on any article in our directory as long as all policies stated above are being followed.
B11 - You agree to give the author a notice if you wish to reprint/publish their article/s.
B12 - USE or REPRINT (manually or via RSS) the articles found in our directory AT YOUR OWN RISK.
B13 - In connection to B12, you agree that Trendirama.com does not hold any legal liability or responsibility for any violations, issues, accuracy, or completeness an article may found to have on your use of any article in our directory.
B14 - You are allowed to publish the articles online, but not limited to, by using our Free RSS content feed provided you wont change anything in the article from our RSS feed. And you are also allowed to use our “Article Publisher” link found in every article page provided you follow all terms mentioned above.
B15 - You agree not to use any automated scraping system and/or scripts to reprint, grab, or mine contents from our directory and that Trendirama.com has the right to refuse access from you.

Privacy:
All emails used to register an account will not be given out to the public and will not be for sale.

Limitations:
Our site is a free article submission site with an optional paid distribution feature. Although, we don’t allow submissions of non-original articles we DO NOT hold our team liable in cases of users submitting non-original and copyrighted articles. If you find by any means that your article was submitted under a different name not recognized by you and wish to delete it, you may contact us and present your evidences. Please see Disclaimer for contact information.

Disclaimers
Trendirama.com disclaimes all the articles published/posted as it is owned by the author/authorized representative and/or their respective owners who submitted them to us. To report a copyright violation please see the Copyright Violations section of this Acceptable Use Policy.

Liability Disclaimer:
Trendirama.com does not hold any legal liability or responsibility for the usefulness, effectiveness, completeness, or accuracy of any information, product, or service found in any articles and sponsored links, banners or any other advertisements found in this site.

All Articles, contents, and information presented in this site are for educational or entertainment purposes only and should not be used, implemented or applied without consultation from a professional.

Articles or data presented herein are sole opinions and/or findings of the authors or organizations that registered and submitted the articles at Trendirama.com without any fee. We at Trendirama.com do not, in anyway, contribute or state our own findings, facts and opinions in any articles presented in this site.

External Links Disclaimer:
Trendirama.com contains several links to other external sites be it in the articles, link directory, or sponsored links. Trendirama.com does not recommend, guarantee, or warrant any information, products, or services found in these external sites.

Trendirama.com does not recommend or endorse anything found in all articles. The informations found on every articles are owned by the author and/or their respective owners and does not concern or is being recommended by Trendirama.com. You are solely responsible for your actions should you use any information, product, or service found in this site.

Trendirama.com does not contain any pop-ups, pop-unders and/or installation scripts. Know that they did not originate from Trendirama.com if ever you receive one as a result by clicking on any external link found in Trendirama.com.

Trendirama.com does not guarantee and is not reponsible for the availability, content, services and/or products of all external links within this site.

Article Distribution Disclaimer:
Trendirama.com does not hold any legal liability or responsibility for the articles distributed if the articles are found to be violating any copyright laws. The role of Trendirama.com in it’s article distribution service is only to distribute the article but the ownership and copyright remains with the author and/or their respective owners.

Trendirama.com does not own all sites it is sending articles to for distribution. If the articles distributed by Trendirama.com to these sites are not approved or takes some time to be reviewed, it is the decision of the editors/administrators of these sites alone and not of Trendirama.com.

Copyright Violations:
For anyone who finds an article being plagiarized or for any copyright violation complaints please email us at info[at]Trendirama.com (replace [at] with @) or use our Contact Us form. Send us your complaint together with your document/s and other substantial information that are helpful to prove your claim about the copyright violation. We will remove any article in our database if proven that it is violating any copyright issue.

Why write?

About Trendinews.com
Here is where the Trendirama.com’s authors interact with you on all sorts of subjects. You can write here too, once your Trendirama article is published. Writing in Trendirama.com is easy and free! Join the fray by commenting, tracking what others have to say, or linking to us from your blog. Welcome to Trendinews!

Why do authors write here?
1) At the time of writing, this blog has more than 30 programming enhancements to make your interaction with readers more complete and effective. None of the free blogging tools in the market offer such comprehensive functionality. If you were to commision a blog like this one, the cost would be in excess of US$ 2000. Each incremental enhancements would be billed separately.

2) When writing on Trendinews.com your article may be read by readers that come from a) trendirama.com and b) other writer’s articles.
We all benefit from promoting a unique website

3) As long as your posts are not advertorials, you can write about anything you want to. You are not limited to one particular subject

4) You have a voice in the design, sections, and future direction of this blog

5) A team of people around the world is working while you sleep to make this blog succeed. We are all interested in increasing readership to this blog and Trendirama.com. When you promote Trendirama.com, we are all helping each other. You are not alone.

6) If our articles are interesting to readers, we’ll be able to take a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. We can become a source of news, debate and interaction for our readers. Once we get it done, a snowball effect will continue bringing more readers with very little promotion on our side

7) Writing in Trendinews and Trendirama.com gives you free exposure

You don’t pay for hosting, domain name registration or renewal fees

9) You don’t need to hassle with the programming side of things

10) You can publish your best articles here, even if they’ve been already published somewhere else

11) You can blog anytime, 24h a day, whenever you are inspired. We rarely need to take this blog offline for maintenance

12) This blog is backed up once a day. Another thing you don’t have to worry about (keep a copy of your posts, just in case though! You know computers…

13) You can get to know interesting people (writers and commenters). You can interact directly with the writers through the Trendirama Forum.

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