CynicusEconomicus: 2009 - The Year of the Fall of the West

CynicusEconomicus: 2009 - The Year of the Fall of the West

It is a very big question. I am not really sure that I know the answer. I am not sure how bad things may yet become. Many months ago, a commentator on a post asked whether I thought that there would be food shortages in the UK in the future. I suggested that this would not be the case, and still think that it will not become that severe. However, I do think that the UK is heading towards that kind of severity, though will never reach that point. There are still enough companies in the UK that can create genuine wealth, that are competitive in the world, but they are too few in comparison to the needs of the country. This has been evident for many years in the ongoing balance of trade deficits.

My comment:

Great post. Just one thing caught my attention:

You said “I do think that the UK is heading towards that kind of severity… (food shortages) though will never reach that point. There are still enough companies in the UK that can create genuine wealth, that are competitive in the world”

You believe we won’t see food shortages. I do.
The companies that are still competitive in the UK will flight as the situation deteriorates. No point in staying in a country with shrinking individual purchasing power, rising unemployment -so less people can buy your services- and a currency and hard assets -property, machinery- depreciating by the minute.
The capital will rapidly get out of here as things get tougher. This is already happening as yo u know.
Politicians will let the capital leave because they’ll be either pressured into doing so, or simply because wealthy politicians themselves will benefit of not impeding this massive and rapid capital flight.
There will also be “noise” by populist politicians and the masses on “spreading the wealth” more evenly, increasing taxes to the wealthy. This will only accelerate the capital flight process. End result: an economy that does not produce anything competitively exportable, where people can’t find jobs and small amounts of money change hands very slowly. If we add to this the fact that most western societies are not geared to producing their own food, why can you not see food shortages in the future?

December 29, 2008 · Filed Under Analysis, Business, Future, Society

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